the mountain west

the concept of political realignment is one of my favourites. a realignment is a major shift in the partisan orientation of the electorate, 'the chief tension-managing device avaliable' in modern politics. 1993 was the ultimate realignment, seeing the liberals catapult to a majority over the nearly-dead PCs and NDP, and challenged in parliament only by the bloc and reform. 1988 could have been a similar realignment, had the NDP held through and taken 75 seats to the liberal's 40-odd seats, instead of the reverse result we saw. 1991 was almost a major realignment on the provincial scale, but the new dynamic quickly regressed; bc in 2005 is effectively the same as bc in 1986. the new federal dynamic has yet to reverse, however; mulroney's majority coalition has yet to reconvene, and a shifting social climate, coupled with increasingly antagonistic relations with the US make it severely unlikely that alberta and quebec will ever work under the same political banner again. the NDP has yet to find footing in the realignment and, it seems, is still waiting for a further correction to the political fabric.

i was very nervous during the last federal election because it felt as if the country was on the verge of a realignment. none occured, however. what did occur was the catapulting of a huge amount of previously-untouchable seats into electoral play. the 2006 election will either see a limited realignment within the vast array of swing-seats acros the country, or a consolidation of gains for each party, the conservatives stabilizing between 80-90, and the NDP edging up to 25. i expect the former; a lot of flipping, redefining regions, but leaving parliamentary totals largely untouched.

the NDP's crucial realignment will be the day that it overtakes either the liberals or new conservatives as the official opposition. until that point, i fear the party will be effectively treading water as far as its national influence goes.

a list of albums from the living room
bruce cockburn, speechless (2005)
bows, blush (1997)
blonde redhead, misery is a butterfly (2004)
kate bush, the sensual world (1989)
kings of convenience, riot on an empty street (2004)
sandy denny, the north star grassmen and the ravens (1971)
leonard cohen, recent songs (1979)
leonard cohen, dear heather (2004)
his name is alive, last night (2002)
bruce cockburn, the charity of night (1996)
hope sandoval and the warm inventions, bavarian fruit bread (2001)
damon and naomi, playback singers (1998)
joe jackson, big world (1986)
the new pornographers, twin cinema (2005)
richard and linda thompson, shoot out the lights (1982)
joni mitchell, court and spark (1974)