the aristocracy of pull

con. 124
lib 92
bloc 58
NDP 34

con 36%
lib 31%
bloc 12%
ndp 18%

and in bc:

• Abbotsford - CON*
  
• British Columbia Southern Interior - NDP*
  
• Burnaby-Douglas - NDP
  
• Burnaby-New Westminster - NDP
  
• Cariboo-Prince George - CON
  
• Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon - CON*
  
• Delta-Richmond East - CON
  
• Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca - NDP
  
• Fleetwood-Port Kells - CON
  
• Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo - CON*
  
• Kelowna–Lake Country - CON*
  
• Kootenay-Columbia - CON*
  
• Langley - CON*
  
• Nanaimo-Alberni - CON
  
• Nanaimo-Cowichan - NDP*
  
• Newton-North Delta - NDP
  
• New Westminster-Coquitlam - NDP
  
• North Vancouver - CON
  
• Okanagan-Coquihalla - CON*
  
• Okanagan–Shuswap - CON*
  
• Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge–Mission - CON
  
• Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam - CON*
  
• Prince George-Peace River - CON*
  
• Richmond - LIB
  
• Saanich-Gulf Islands - CON
  
• Skeena-Bulkley Valley - NDP
  
• South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale - CON
  
• Surrey North - NDP
  
• Vancouver Centre - LIB
  
• Vancouver East - NDP*
  
• Vancouver Island North - NDP
  
• Vancouver Kingsway - NDP
  
• Vancouver Quadra - LIB
  
• Vancouver South - LIB
  
• Victoria - NDP
  
• West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country - LIB
  

the close ones are nanaimo-alberni and pitt meadows-maple ridge-mission. they are quite similar; if the LIB vote goes to the NDP, they'll win. if not, they stay CON. vancouver centre is the weirdest. the LIBs won't win in surrey; they never have, and won't start now. if they did win, it would be in south surrey-white rock-cloverdale. i think that a lot will come down to vote splits. i have put an asterix next to the seats that will be won with absolute majorities.

we will be at the main on main tomorrow night; just kingsway, no central bash.